StanChart pushes $2T stablecoin to 2030

Standard Chartered has moved back its best-known stablecoin forecast. In a research note published on 14 October 2026, the bank said it now expects the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by 2030, rather than by 2028 as it had projected before. The reason is simple: the total supply of stablecoins has barely grown this year.

For anyone following stablecoin news, the more interesting part of the note is the contrast it draws. Supply is flat, but the tokens are being used far more than before.

What changed in the forecast

The note was written by Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research. He kept the $2 trillion target but shifted the date by two years. Over the past 12 months, the stablecoin market has moved in a narrow band between about $300 billion and $320 billion, and it currently sits at roughly $309 billion. Reaching $2 trillion from there would need growth of more than six times.

Supply is flat, usage is not

If you are asking what is a stablecoin, it is a digital token designed to hold a steady value, usually one US dollar, backed by reserves such as cash and short-term government debt. Standard Chartered's figures show that these dollar tokens are changing hands much more often. Monthly on-chain transfer value has averaged just under $10 trillion this year, up from about $4 trillion in 2025, and reached a record $19 trillion in May.

The bank also measured velocity, meaning how many times each stablecoin dollar moves in a month. On average it roughly doubled, from about 15 times in 2025 to about 30 times this year. The two largest tokens behave very differently: USDT velocity stayed near 7 times a month, while USDC rose from about 45 to about 80. In the bank's reading, USDT is mainly used as a dollar savings tool in emerging markets, while USDC is used more for payments and financial transactions.

Why supply stalled

Kendrick describes the slowdown as cyclical rather than structural. It has coincided with weak activity in the wider digital asset market, and the note points out that earlier periods of flat or falling supply were followed by renewed growth once markets recovered.

Competition and regulation

The note expects the hardest fight to be in payments in developed markets, where stablecoins compete with existing banking services. It names newer dollar tokens and infrastructure providers, as well as a planned multi-bank network that would let banks issue a shared stablecoin, as challengers. How issuers share the income earned on reserves is likely to shape that contest.

Regulation is the biggest risk to the forecast. The US GENIUS Act is due to take effect in January 2027, and much depends on whether other countries adopt similar rules.

Why it matters for payments

The forecast change is a reminder that market size and real-world use are different measures. For payments, velocity matters more than supply: a smaller pool of tokens that moves often can still carry large volumes for international money transfer, merchant settlement and business payouts. That is the trend banks and payment companies are building for.

What to watch next

The signals to follow are whether broader market activity recovers, how the GENIUS Act rules are applied from January 2027, whether other regulators copy them, and whether bank-backed tokens gain ground against the established issuers.

What it means for ODIX Pay users

The research shows dollar stablecoins being used more for everyday money movement. In the ODIX Pay app you can buy crypto with a credit card or debit card, choosing the dollar stablecoins USDT or USDC, and use the same money transfer app to send an international money transfer to a bank account. Availability depends on your country, and every fee is shown before you confirm. See how to buy USDT and USDC with your card.