Tesla Roadster and the SpaceX deal talk

What happened

"Tesla Roadster" was one of Google's daily trending searches in Portugal this week, and the story behind it reaches well beyond a sports car. Tesla scheduled the reveal and demonstration of its next-generation Roadster for Thursday 15 October, Electrek reported, after moving it from 1 October because of severe weather forecast in central Texas. The event was expected at SpaceX's rocket test site in McGregor, Texas, and Electrek has reported that the planned demo relies on a cold gas thruster package developed by SpaceX. In the same days, Barclays put a possible Tesla–SpaceX merger back on investors' radar.

What Barclays said

According to Jornal Económico, Barclays indicated that a Tesla–SpaceX merger announcement could come before December. Seu Dinheiro reported on 15 October that Barclays analyst Dan Levy sees a combination becoming the market's consensus expectation, though there is no official announcement or formal proposal. Neither company has confirmed a deal.

Levy's main argument, as reported by Seu Dinheiro, is vertical integration in artificial intelligence: Tesla's "physical AI" in robotaxis and the Optimus robot, and SpaceX's "virtual AI" through Grok. SpaceX acquired xAI, the maker of Grok, in a stock swap in February, Jornal Económico noted, citing Reuters.

Terafab: the shared project

A practical link between the two companies is Terafab, a semiconductor plant in Grimes County, Texas, that SpaceX announced on 8 October. Jornal Económico said the initial investment is about $16.8 billion from SpaceX and Tesla, with chips planned for Tesla's Optimus robots and Cybercab vehicles and for SpaceX's planned space data centres. Seu Dinheiro noted that decisions on the plant need approval from both boards, a process that would be simpler inside one company.

The numbers in the Barclays scenario

In the Barclays scenario described by Seu Dinheiro, SpaceX is valued at about $2.1 trillion and Tesla at about $1.5 trillion, with SpaceX as the buyer in an all-stock deal. At current prices, each Tesla share would equal roughly 0.7 SpaceX shares before any premium, and the size of a premium is undecided. Elon Musk owns about 20% of Tesla and 48% of SpaceX; in this scenario he would hold about 37% of the combined company and 56% of its votes, according to the same report.

Timing matters. Seu Dinheiro said Tesla must hold its annual shareholder meeting by 6 December under SEC rules, and Levy sees that meeting as a natural venue for a vote. He also warned that an announcement in October or early November could make approval at that meeting harder. Barclays still sees a deal within six to twelve months.

Why it matters for investors

For anyone checking the stock market today, the story shows how fast speculation can move prices. Seu Dinheiro reported that both shares fell on 15 October during a wider tech sell-off, and reminded readers that speculation moves prices in both directions. The report also flagged a governance point: Musk's control would rise, leaving minority shareholders with less influence. Tesla shareholders would vote on any deal.

What to watch next

Watch for a formal proposal from either board, the date and agenda of Tesla's shareholder meeting, and news from the planned Roadster demonstration. Electrek has stressed that the planned event is a reveal rather than a production start; Roadster production is still guided for 2027 or 2028, after earlier demo dates slipped several times.

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